More sub-wonkish UK polling ruminations

Another clutch of polls wich continue to show the major UK parties effectively tied (1).

24 Nov 40 40 9 Tie
23 Nov 42 40 10 Con +2
22 Nov 41 38 11 Con +3

Its simplistic to say that this is down to unpopular cuts. The Tories share is still consistently around 40% which is a touch higher than they achieved at the election. Any collapse in support for the Tories due to unpopular policy is still to come. The difference is a transfer of about 10% of the vote from the Lib Dems to Labour - probably, the Social Democrat faction signalling their disgust with the coalition.

If Labour can retain that portion of the Lib Dem vote, or at least a decent share of it, and there is a 4-5% wane in Tory support as the cuts bite, then 2015 will be a not an other 1997, but another 1789.

1 - As per UK Polling Report, viewed on 27th of Novemeber, 2010. (http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/)